*1 in 40M odds of being a Space Unicorn
The other day while George and I were editing an article “$3.5M Dollars - The true cost of launching Space Startups” we got to the section about what it took to be a Space Unicorn. Space meaning a Founder in The Space Economy, aka Spacepreneur. You could call them “Astroneurs” but thats more of a late 1990s term than 21st Century nomenclature for the entrepreneurs of Space. At any rate, we got around to calculating the odds of being a Unicorn. Unicorn not meaning horned horse, with wings. Though not all unicorns have horns and technically rhinoceros are just confidently, plump unicorns. Rather, unicorns meaning startups who are worth over $1 Billion dollars.
So we math the math and the odds of being a Space Unicorn are 1 in 40 Million.
- Fewer than 1% of startups get VC money.
- Only 1 in 40 VC Funded companies become unicorns.
- 1 in 10,000 companies are space or space related.
- Accounting for bias towards tech investments [ 2.5*10^(-8) to 1] that gets you to about 1 in 40M odds. Which is way better than your 1 in 300M odds of winning the Mega-Millions lottery.
So there you have it. The odds of being a Space / aerospace unicorn are about 8.5 times better than you winning the Mega-Millions lottery. Not too shabby if I might say so myself.
About the Authors
Samson Williams and George Pullen are Co-Founders of the Washington, DC based think tank, MilkyWayEconomy, where they explore the future of The Space Economy. When not thinking about the future of technology and economics in Space they are adjunct professors at UNH School of Law and Columbia University in NYC. For business inquires reach out to them at firstname.lastname@example.org