Forecasting the Future $300B US Space Budget:

A 2-4x Budget Increase for US Space Programs in 2025 and Beyond

The United States stands at a crossroads in space policy, driven by a blend of commercial opportunity, national defense imperatives, and the enduring mission of NASA to explore the unknown. MilkyWayEconomy (MWE) is forecasting a substantial 2-4x increase in the U.S. space budget, primarily directed toward NASA and the United States Space Force (USSF). MWE forecasts U.S. space budgets reaching $150B to as much as $300B within the next four years. This growth is fueled by five transformative space policy initiatives that have the potential to reshape the commercial space industry, bolster defense capabilities, and redefine the scope of human exploration. Let’s break down these ideas and their broader impacts.

1. Cislunar Infrastructure Development

The Moon is no longer a distant dream—it’s becoming an economic and strategic frontier. Building cislunar infrastructure, including commercial space stations, supply depots, energy and data centers, and transportation systems, is essential for unlocking its potential.

Commercial Impact: Cislunar infrastructure serves as the backbone for emerging industries like lunar mining, space tourism, and in-space manufacturing. With the Moon's resources offering raw materials for fuel and construction, the costs of operating in space could plummet, making space-based ventures economically viable. Lunar tourism and research stations will also attract private investment, creating a cascade of economic activity in The Space Economy.

Defense Impact: The cislunar region is quickly becoming a contested domain. Establishing a robust infrastructure ensures the U.S. maintains a strategic advantage, deterring adversaries from asserting dominance. It also acts as a critical staging ground for monitoring deep-space activities and securing assets critical to national security.

NASA’s Role: For NASA, cislunar infrastructure represents a stepping stone to Mars and beyond. By creating a sustainable presence in cislunar space, NASA can test technologies, refine human spaceflight capabilities, and reduce risks for future missions. These technologies and missions will undoubtedly be developed in cooperation with commercial entities and the space agencies of allied nations.

2. Space Domain Awareness (SDA) Enhancement

In a rapidly congesting orbital environment, enhancing Space Domain Awareness (SDA) is no longer optional—it’s mandatory.

Commercial Impact: For commercial operators, the ability to track and predict the behavior of space objects is paramount. Advanced sensors and data analysis tools can prevent catastrophic collisions, protect satellites, and ensure mission reliability. This, in turn, reduces risks, insurance costs, and fosters investor confidence.

Defense Impact: From a defense perspective, SDA provides a critical layer of situational awareness, enabling the U.S. to identify and mitigate potential threats to its space assets. This capability is vital for maintaining dominance in the space domain.

NASA’s Role: NASA benefits from enhanced SDA by ensuring the safety of its missions and assets, from satellites to human spaceflights. Better awareness also aids in planning missions and navigating complex orbital paths.

3. Clearer Licensing and Regulatory Frameworks

The current regulatory landscape for space activities is a patchwork that often stifles innovation. A streamlined, predictable framework is essential to unlocking the full potential of the commercial space sector.

Commercial Impact: Simplifying licensing processes reduces barriers for new entrants, spurring competition and innovation. It also establishes clear guidelines for responsibilities like space debris mitigation, end-of-life satellite management, and spaceport permitting creating a safer, robust, and more sustainable space environment.

Defense Impact: A transparent regulatory framework fosters closer collaboration between government and industry, allowing the U.S. to harness commercial innovation for defense purposes. We can not out central plan our rivals but we can unleash the powers of the Free Market. For example, private companies can quickly develop technologies that address national security challenges or identify existing solutions that have dual-use capabilities.

NASA’s Role: For NASA, clearer regulations mean more efficient partnerships with the private sector and guiderails for intra-government relationships. Streamlined processes allow NASA to focus on its core missions while leveraging commercial capabilities and all-of-government resources to fill gaps and reduce costs.

4. International Space Cooperation Agreements

As space becomes increasingly global with 80 space agencies around the world strong international agreements are essential to ensure cooperation, stability, and responsible behavior.

Commercial Impact: International agreements on space traffic management and debris mitigation create a predictable environment for commercial operators. A Five Eyes Plus like structure and understanding of enhancing information, technology sharing and purchasing for designated national space entities will also benefit commercial space. This reduces risks, fosters global collaboration, and opens markets for U.S. companies abroad.

Defense Impact: Space is not just a commercial arena—it’s a geopolitical one. Space Grand Strategy and Pax Astra are the future. Strengthening international norms and agreements helps prevent conflicts and fosters collective security in space. This is particularly important as rival nations push for dominance in key areas like cislunar space.

NASA’s Role: NASA has always been a leader in international collaboration, from the International Space Station to Mars missions. Strong agreements enable NASA to partner with other space agencies on ambitious projects that no single nation could achieve alone.

5. Space Energy: Space-Based Solar Power (SBSP) and Space Nuclear Research and Development

Space-based solar power (SBSP) has the potential to revolutionize energy on Earth and beyond, making it a key area for investment. Nuclear energy and advancements in nuclear applications for space is essential for future mobility, architectures, and infrastructure.

Commercial Impact: SBSP could create a trillion-dollar global energy market, providing clean, reliable, and abundant energy to even the most remote regions. AI requires power and nuclear energy is an clear choice both here and in space. A nuclear renaissance will spread benefits down and around Earth and up and out into cislunar space. Both of these space energy moves would not only drive economic growth but also position the U.S. as a leader in the next energy revolution.

Defense Impact: For the military, SBSP offers a resilient energy source that can power operations in remote or hostile environments. SMRs also have important uses both on and off world. They can help reduce reliance on terrestrial energy infrastructure, enhancing operational flexibility and security.

NASA’s Role: For NASA, SBSP and advancements in nuclear technology will support long-duration space missions and future human settlements. The ability to generate and transmit power from space could be a game-changer for exploration and habitation beyond Earth.

Why a 2-4x Budget Increase is Necessary

The intersection of these five policy areas highlights a pivotal moment in space history. The commercial space industry is poised for exponential growth, but it requires government investment to overcome risk, technical, and logistical barriers. The defense implications of cislunar space and SDA demand increased funding to secure national interests. For NASA, these policies provide the foundation for the next era of human exploration.

A 2-4x increase in the U.S. space budget represents an investment in America’s future. It’s an investment in economic leadership, technological innovation, and national security. As The Space Economy continues to grow, these initiatives will ensure that the U.S. remains at the forefront of the new space age.

“Space is not the final frontier; it’s the next frontier. How we approach it will define our legacy on Earth and beyond.”

George.