Only Brands Remain: How Tariffs Threaten the Survival of America’s Coffee Industry
By Samson Williams, Anthropologist-in-Residence, MWE
There are no manufacturers in America anymore. Only brands.
I was recently at the Specialty Coffee Association (SCA) Expo in Houston, Texas providing mission support to our favorite coffee portco Dope Coffee Company. Walking the trade floor was like stepping into a paradox: on the one hand, America’s proud culture of small business, entrepreneurship, and “craft.” On the other hand, booth after booth of Chinese manufacturers, proudly showcasing the very machines, roasters, grinders, brewers, and café tech that American brands rely on. No irony. No disguises. Just reality.
It hit me like the scent of fresh ground espresso: in the coffee industry — and frankly, across most of the American economy — the so-called “brands” don’t own the means of production. They curate it. They market it. They put their logos on it. But the guts, the gears, the equipment that power American coffee? That supply chain runs straight back to China.
And that’s why tariffs on Chinese goods don't just pinch at the margins for coffee brands. They threaten to destroy them.
Building the Illusion: 20 Years of Supply Chain Dependency
Over the past two decades, American coffee companies — from third-wave indie roasters to major national chains — have built their businesses atop a globalized supply chain. This supply chain depends almost entirely on affordable, high-quality manufacturing from China.
Walk through any café and you’ll see it:
- The espresso machines that brew your double-shot? Likely assembled or wholly made in China.
- The grinders that pulverize the beans to perfection? Chinese factories.
- The brewers, kettles, pour-over gear, even café furniture? China, China, China.
Even products "engineered in Italy" or "designed in Seattle" often have key components, if not full assembly, in Chinese factories. Brand logos slapped onto Chinese-manufactured goods built the illusion of American manufacturing long after the real industrial capabilities hollowed out.
Tariffs (originally envisioned as a way to bring back manufacturing jobs) have instead exposed the terrifying fragility of these brand-built empires.
Why Tariffs Hit Coffee Especially Hard
Tariffs are, effectively, a tax on the imported reality that American brands have hidden behind marketing campaigns.
When a 25% (or 245%) tariff hits an espresso machine or coffee roaster, it doesn’t just raise costs — it attacks the economic foundation of the coffee brand itself. Here's why:
- Tight Margins: Specialty coffee already operates on razor-thin margins. When an espresso machine that once cost $10,000 wholesale now costs $12,500, that $2,500 difference can erase the profit of dozens, even hundreds, of lattes.
- No Domestic Substitutes: There are virtually no American manufacturers capable of producing coffee equipment at the scale, quality, and price point that Chinese factories offer. American brands can’t "reshore" manufacturing overnight — or possibly at all.
- Capital Constraints: Most independent coffee brands don’t have the cash reserves to absorb sudden 20%-30% cost increases. They face a brutal choice: raise prices and risk alienating customers in an already competitive market, or eat the cost and slowly bleed out.
- Customer Expectations: Thanks to years of cheap imports, American consumers expect $5 lattes made with $10,000 machines. Tell them the price is now $7 because of tariffs and they don’t blame Washington...they blame the barista.
How Many Will Survive?
The simple answer: not many.
We are already seeing the early signs:
- Delayed Equipment Upgrades: Cafés are limping along with aging equipment rather than buying new, fearing price hikes.
- Margin Compression: Coffee shops are discounting less and raising prices slowly, trying to find a price elasticity breaking point without going bankrupt.
- Exit Plans: Many founders, realizing that growth prospects have dimmed, are preparing for strategic exits or distressed sales.
In the next 24 to 36 months, it’s reasonable to hypothesize that 30% to 40% of independent coffee brands may not survive without significant operational changes — particularly those that are asset-heavy and equipment-reliant.
Meanwhile, larger chains — who have negotiating power with suppliers, access to alternative financing, and the ability to vertically integrate or diversify suppliers — will consolidate market share. Tariffs, in this case, serve not to rebuild American manufacturing, but to accelerate oligopoly dynamics already underway.
The Hypocrisy of It All
What makes this situation so tragically ironic is that many of the brands who trumpet "Made in America" authenticity are absolutely dependent on Chinese manufacturing to exist.
It’s not just coffee. Look at bicycles, tools, fitness equipment, electronics, apparel. America’s economy is a brand economy: we are curators, not creators. We are marketers, not manufacturers.
Coffee brands are merely the canary in the coal mine — the early victims of an economic structure that pretended globalization could be reversed with a few tariffs and slogans.
In truth, globalization is like a broken bone that healed wrong: it’s part of the body now. Trying to “fix” it with tariffs alone is like trying to straighten that bone with a punch. It doesn't heal — it shatters.
Conclusion: Only the Nimble Will Survive
The brands that survive will be those who quickly adapt:
- Diversifying Supply Chains: Looking to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Mexico for alternative sourcing (though none offer China’s scale and cost yet).
- Leaning Into IP and Experience: Building brands that sell an experience so strong that customers are willing to pay higher prices — not just a commodity.
- Vertical Integration: Some will begin manufacturing small batches of equipment domestically — not to compete with China, but to de-risk.
But make no mistake: the era of easy branding on top of Chinese manufacturing is coming to a painful, expensive end.
And in the aftermath, we may discover just how few American brands actually had anything real behind their name.
Til then, stay dope and see you in orbit.
Samson