The U.S.–China Competition from the Polar Circle to the Moon
By George Pullen, Chief Economist, MilkyWayEconomy (MWE)
The competition between the United States and China is no longer confined to trade balances, tariffs, or even terrestrial military postures. It has become a systems-level contest across extreme environments…from the Arctic Circle to cislunar space. These domains are not separate theaters. They are linked proving grounds that test a nation’s capacity to govern, finance, supply, and sustain activity where margins are thin and failure is unforgiving.
The Arctic is the Earth-bound laboratory for this competition. It compresses distance, magnifies logistics costs, degrades infrastructure, and exposes the fragility of just-in-time systems. Icebreakers, ports, undersea cables, energy resilience, and indigenous governance are not side issues; they are the economic prerequisites of presence. China understands this. While lacking Arctic geography, it has methodically embedded itself through shipping trials, mineral access agreements, research stations, and long-horizon infrastructure financing. The Arctic, for Beijing, is not about flags…it is about operational learning.
The Moon extends this logic. Lunar operations are Arctic economics without the political safety rails. There is no local labor pool, no emergency resupply, and no tolerated inefficiency. Power generation, autonomy, communications latency, governance frameworks, and capital durability become decisive. Nations that cannot operate sustainably in the Arctic will not operate sustainably on the Moon. The Arctic filters aspirational space powers from operational ones.
The U.S. approach remains technologically superior but institutionally fragmented. Innovation thrives, yet long-term coordination across civil, commercial, and strategic objectives remains uneven. China’s approach is slower, more centralized, and structurally patient. It prioritizes endurance over speed, redundancy over elegance, and state-backed capital over market volatility. In frontier economies, these traits compound.
The Arctic–Lunar Continuum reframes the competition: this is not a race for firsts, but a test of permanence. The winner will not be the nation that arrives first, but the one that can stay…profitably, securely, and indefinitely. Mastery of the polar regions is therefore not a distraction from space strategy. It is the entrance exam.
In the coming decade, the Arctic will quietly determine who governs the Moon.
GEORGE PULLEN’S OFFICIAL DISCLAIMER
This essay on the "Polar–Lunar Continuum" does not relate to my official position with the US Government. In accordance with 18 U.S.C. § 209 the teaching, speaking and writing around this collection of essays are not undertaken as part of my official duties. I was not invited by a related party to write on these topics, but rather took the initiative to write on the Polar-Lunar Continum given my personal interest, research and expertise in the topic and as a continuation of my research on Blockchain and The Space Economy. Members of the public should know clearly that this is not a product of any agency's official speech or official position but undertaken as the exercise of my free speech as a citizen of the United States.
Further, the content does not relate to my official duties because it is not a topic of my presently assigned duties as a Senior Economist for the CFTC or any of my duties within the past year. The information conveyed also does not draw upon nonpublic CFTC information or substantially on ideas or official data that are nonpublic information as defined in § 2635.