What Frontier Economics Teach Us About Humanity’s Next Step
By George Pullen, Chief Economist, MilkyWayEconomy
For most of recorded history, humanity’s greatest advances have not come from abundance, but from constraint. Frontiers (whether deserts, oceans, poles, or orbit) strip civilization down to its economic essentials. They remove surplus illusion and expose the real drivers of survival: logistics, energy, governance, and trust. This is the core insight of frontier economics, and it is why the Arctic–Lunar Continuum matters.
The Arctic is not simply a harsh environment. It is a live-fire economic simulation of space. In the Arctic, infrastructure is fragile, maintenance costs dominate capital costs, redundancy is mandatory, and failure is terminal. Labor must be multi-skilled. Supply chains must be anticipatory rather than reactive. Governance must function at the edge of state capacity. These are not theoretical challenges—they are daily operating conditions. Any nation or institution that cannot sustain economic activity in the Arctic will not sustain it on the Moon.
Frontier economics teaches a brutal but clarifying lesson: productivity is not about output per hour, but output per kilogram, per watt, per resupply cycle. In extreme environments, growth is capped not by ambition but by physics and logistics. This reality forces a redefinition of efficiency....away from scale and toward resilience. The Moon will impose the same discipline, only without atmospheric forgiveness.
The Arctic also reveals the limits of market romanticism. Pure price signals fail in frontier zones because replacement costs are nonlinear and delay is lethal. As a result, frontier economies inevitably blend public capital, strategic subsidies, and private execution. This hybrid model is not a bug...it is a requirement. Lunar economies will follow the same pattern, whether policymakers admit it or not.
At a deeper level, frontier economics reframes humanity’s next step not as expansion but as maturation. Moving into extreme environments requires institutional patience, cultural cohesion, and a tolerance for slow returns. It rewards societies that invest in systems over symbols and endurance over spectacle. The Arctic has quietly been sorting winners from aspirants for decades.
The Arctic–Lunar Continuum therefore offers more than a planning analogy. It provides a moral and economic filter. The question is no longer whether humanity can reach the Moon again, but whether it can build an economy there that does not collapse under its own logistical weight. The Arctic suggests the answer will depend less on rockets and more on discipline.
Frontiers do not celebrate us. They test us. And in that test lies the clearest preview of humanity’s next step—not outward, but upward in economic maturity.
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GEORGE PULLEN’S OFFICIAL DISCLAIMER
This essay on the "Polar–Lunar Continuum" does not relate to my official position with the US Government. In accordance with 18 U.S.C. § 209 the teaching, speaking and writing around this collection of essays are not undertaken as part of my official duties. I was not invited by a related party to write on these topics, but rather took the initiative to write on the Polar-Lunar Continum given my personal interest, research and expertise in the topic and as a continuation of my research on Blockchain and The Space Economy. Members of the public should know clearly that this is not a product of any agency's official speech or official position but undertaken as the exercise of my free speech as a citizen of the United States.
Further, the content does not relate to my official duties because it is not a topic of my presently assigned duties as a Senior Economist for the CFTC or any of my duties within the past year. The information conveyed also does not draw upon nonpublic CFTC information or substantially on ideas or official data that are nonpublic information as defined in § 2635.