PhDs: The Taxi Cab Medallions of Academics
By George Pullen, Chief Economist, MWE
PhDs, once the gold standard of academic achievement, now find themselves trapped in a peculiar paradox. Much like taxi medallions in the 20th century—symbols of prestige and financial security—PhDs were once the ultimate credential for intellectual authority. Yet, in today’s world, the PhD’s utility is increasingly questioned. The rapid evolution of technology, shifting job markets, and growing dissatisfaction with the traditional academic system have left many asking: Are PhDs becoming an outdated currency in the marketplace of ideas?
Side note: PhD stands for Doctor of Philosophy. How DoP gets translated to PhD is a mystery we'll consider in a follow up article as we attempt to make sense of the future of DoPs/PhDs.
The Taxi Medallion Analogy
For decades, owning a taxi medallion was synonymous with stable income and social status in cities like New York. In New York City, taxi medallions—once considered solid investments—have experienced a dramatic decrease in value. At their peak in 2014, medallions were selling for over $1 million. However, with the rise of ride-sharing services (Uber, Lyft, Bird, etc...), their value plummeted to approximately $80,000 by September 2021. Similarly, PhDs have long symbolized intellectual achievement, offering access to tenured positions, research opportunities, and professional respect. Yet, as the digital age democratizes knowledge, and the cryptocurrency bull markets pathed the way for faster microprocessors and the computational infrastructure to support AI, disrupting every "traditional" career path imaginable, the relevance of the PhD is under scrutiny.
The Taxi Medallion Analogy
The problem isn’t the knowledge PhDs represent; it’s the structure they inhabit. Much like medallions were confined to rigid regulations and exclusivity that couldn’t adapt to market changes, PhDs are tethered to academic institutions and career paths that struggle to match the speed of technological and economic evolution. With rising student debt, shrinking tenure opportunities, and the explosion of alternative learning platforms, the traditional PhD is increasingly seen as an expensive and inflexible credential in a world demanding agility and practical expertise. I for one am more interested in your GitHub or IG handle, than what degree you have.
The Shifting Landscape of Knowledge
The pace of technological and societal change is rendering many traditional academic disciplines less relevant or, at best, insufficient on their own. While some fields like physics, mathematics, and biology remain critical for foundational research, others are being overshadowed by interdisciplinary and applied fields that address the world's most pressing challenges. These include artificial intelligence, climate resilience, space economy, and biotechnology.
Furthermore, industries now value skills that often fall outside traditional academic frameworks. Coding, data science, UX design, blockchain development, and digital marketing are just a few examples of fields where proficiency is more easily acquired through short-term, intensive programs or self-directed learning rather than years-long doctoral programs.
The Problem with PhDs
It takes nine months to make a baby. Thirteen weeks to make a Marine. Why are you in grad school for a decade plus? PhDs take years to complete, often at great financial and personal cost. They are designed to produce specialists in narrowly defined fields, which may not align with the broader skill sets employers now demand. Moreover, the research produced in academia frequently struggles to transition into real-world applications, leaving PhDs in a challenging position when entering non-academic job markets.
The exclusivity of the PhD system also perpetuates systemic inequities. It often excludes talented individuals who lack the time or resources to dedicate years to a program, even though they may have the capacity to innovate and solve critical problems.
A New Vision: Alternatives to the PhD
If the PhD is the taxi medallion, we need an academic and professional "rideshare" equivalent—accessible, scalable, and adaptable credentialing models. Here are some alternatives that could replace or complement the traditional PhD:
1. Stackable Credentials
Rather than committing to a single, monolithic degree, professionals could earn stackable credentials in key areas. For example, an individual could complete micro-certifications in AI ethics, space economy logistics, python, MS Excel, PowerBI and sustainable agriculture, tailoring their expertise to emerging industries. These credentials would be modular, allowing learners to pivot as markets and technologies evolve.
2. Interdisciplinary Master’s Degrees
Interdisciplinary programs that merge multiple fields, such as AI and sociology or biotechnology and policy, could offer more practical value. These degrees should be shorter, more flexible, and focused on equipping students to address complex global problems.
3. Corporate-Academic Partnerships
Companies and academic institutions could collaborate to offer apprenticeships and certification programs directly tied to industry needs. For example, a partnership between a biotech firm and a university could produce a specialized credential in CRISPR technology. These programs would align with real-world applications and offer immediate employment opportunities.
4. Innovation Incubators
Instead of a traditional doctoral program, aspiring researchers could join innovation incubators, where they work directly on solving specific problems in exchange for mentorship, resources, and access to industry networks. These incubators could operate in partnership with universities or independently, emphasizing outcomes over traditional academic metrics.
5. AI-Enhanced Learning
Artificial intelligence could revolutionize education by creating personalized, adaptive learning paths. AI-driven platforms could identify gaps in a learner’s knowledge and provide tailored content, effectively replacing the "one-size-fits-all" model of traditional PhDs. This approach could be applied to any field, from engineering to ethics.
Emerging Fields for the Next 20-40 Years
To future-proof education, we must anticipate the industries that will dominate the next few decades. Here are some subject areas likely to grow in relevance:
- Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning: As AI integrates into every aspect of life, expertise in this field will be indispensable.
- Biotechnology and Genetic Engineering: From curing diseases to enhancing human capabilities, biotech will shape the future of health and agriculture.
- Climate Resilience and Sustainability: Addressing climate change will require specialists in renewable energy, carbon capture, and sustainable urban planning.
- The Space Economy: From satellite technology to off-world mining, the space sector will need a multidisciplinary workforce.
- Cybersecurity and Digital Privacy: Protecting digital infrastructure and personal data will become increasingly critical.
- Ethics in Technology: As technology outpaces regulation, experts in tech ethics will be essential for guiding responsible innovation.
- Aging and Longevity Sciences: With aging populations worldwide, fields focused on enhancing human lifespan and health will see significant growth.
Conclusion: Beyond the PhD
The academic world is at a crossroads. PhDs have played a pivotal role in advancing knowledge, but their value is being undermined by systemic inefficiencies and a rapidly changing world. Much like taxi medallions, their prestige no longer guarantees relevance or financial security.
The future demands alternatives that prioritize flexibility, accessibility, and alignment with emerging industries. Whether through stackable credentials, corporate partnerships, apprenticeships or AI-driven learning, the goal should be to democratize expertise, actual skills and empower individuals to adapt to an uncertain and complex future.
Ultimately, the question isn’t whether PhDs will survive but whether academia can evolve to meet the challenges of the 5th Industrial Revolution—or risk being left behind, much like the medallions that now collect dust in a disrupted marketplace.
George